The Tariff Hangover
Refund Checks Arrived. The Inventory Didn't Leave.
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February, and refunds (estimated up to $175B) are now reaching importers. Many retailers bought early in 2025 to get ahead of tariffs, and some of those goods are still in stock.
Goods bought at tariff-inflated costs now compete with cheaper replacement stock. The refund is a one-time boost, but carrying costs (storage, insurance, markdowns) keep coming every month. It's tempting to let the refund cover up old, slow-selling inventory
Use the refund to clear the problem, not to hide it. A tariff refund is a good time to move out old SKUs cleanly, through approved channels that won't undercut this year's full-price line. That's especially true for housewares, small appliances, and lighting, where we saw the most tariff-driven early buying.